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Possible hash rate reversal

Something very interesting that has happened which I haven't seen anyone comment on yet is the possible hash rate trend reversal. I've been keeping an eye on the bitcoin hash rate the last few weeks. As the price dropped I thought that with enough miners going offline there would be a chance of chain death, but watching it for 4 weeks I found my fears unfounded! However, I found it fascinating that even in this bear market, with price dropping for the past year, the hash rate still increased significantly until Oct. You can view the historical hash rate here:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#log
Since October, hash rate has been going down, which I was able to find also happened in Aug - Nov 2011. The bottom of the hash rate could be argued to be 20th / 27th Nov or 13th Dec. Price bottomed out during that time 21st November (I wasn't around during that time, have only been in the space for a year and was reading a coindesk article talking about price historical price highs and lows).
I've been watching hash rate for the last few weeks at this site:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Looking at the most recent hash rate, it seems we're possibly back on the way up, with a hash rate reversal. I think it's still too early to know for sure, but seems to be a strong indication of hash rate rebounding. Another 12-24 hours I think should confirm it.
I am not calling the bottom, as there is no confirmed pattern here, more a hunch and some interesting metrics that are lining up, plus no one knows the future. However I am putting this forward as an interesting metric to discuss, as well as a possible reason for the increase in longs we've seen in the last few hours. Not sure if this is a lead measure or a lag measure, but worth discussing.
I'd be interested to hear what other people's thoughts are!
edit: Spelling and Grammar
edit2: This got a bit off topic, above when saying chain death, I was referring to chain death spiral, so not using correct terminology which may have contributed to the below discussion. Would prefer to move conversation to the original observation of hashing increase though.
submitted by longtermsugar to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Bitcoins hashrate & difficulty levels have been on an epic bull run

A year ago on Aug 24 2017, the mining difficulty and hash rate was considered to be off the charts high. The network was battle tested for over 8 years and the hashpower just kept increasing nearly the whole time. 1 year ago the the idea of becoming a profitable miner required a seriously major investment...I recall thinking that "this hash rate rate can't possibly continue to climb at this rate, it MUST be near the max."
3 days ago was Aug 24 2018...a full year later and the Bitcoin mining difficulty increased to 6,727,225,469,722....One year earlier it was 888,171,856,257 you see how many times it doubled in the last year? The predicted increase for the next adjustment is 7.1%!!
Now a 7.1% increase of last years difficulty level is considered a lot, but 7.1% of the current level is like adding 50% to what it was a year ago. That's hard to comprehend it's so high, and this is a bear market, right? Who could be investing so heavily into mining?
The power of this compounding growth is simply incredible....The money going into large mega scale Bitcoin mining is unfathomabley huge...Is there estimates or data regarding how much fiat is being invested into mining? How much fiat is going into R&D of state of the art tiny nanometer ASICs?
If mining hashpower was not a relevant metric for Bitcoin price valuation a year ago, it most certainly is today and is becoming more and more relevant every 2 weeks. We are talking serious investment.
To put this in perspective the last 2 difficulty increases alone, are very near equal to the entire difficulty of the network this time last year!! That's over 8.5 years of Bitcoin mining hashpower growth in just 4 weeks.
Holy F'n Sh1t! Miners and venture capital have been very very busy and surprisingly it's not so overt.
At this rate it will double in 3 months...would that happen in a bear market? To me this is some of the most bullish data available. I also live in Quebec and in the last few months it's become known the miners are here in a big way.
This site is an excellent tool to reference the hashpower and difficulty over time. (There are several good sites, I just like this one) https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
submitted by Rellim03 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

"The Flippening" explained, how BCH will take over BTC.

https://www.reddit.com/btc/comments/7cg9y2/bitcoin_btc_to_bitcoin_cash_bch_mass_migration/dppwbmf/
[–]tachikoma01 an hour ago
Could you explain to me how the hashing power influence the price of the crypto please?
Here it is:
1) There is a mass migration from BTC to BCH going on.
2) But BTC was saved from massive price crashing, because people couldn't escape fast enough, their sell transactions weren't being mined, so they couldn't confirm.
3) There are currently 180,000 unconfirmed transactions stuck in the Bitcoin system (https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/), many are people rushing to sell BTC to buy BCH.
4) Transactions are averaged around 400bytes (https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/transaction-size), since Blockstream Core insisted on keeping block size at 1MB, you only confirm about 2500tx per block on BTC. (https://blockchain.info)
5) Bitcoin has a built-in system that automatically adjust the mining difficulty, so regardless of what the total hash rate is, you'll still end up with roughly 10 minutes per new block mined, this is known as the "difficulty adjustment".
6) The difficulty adjustment is not instant, it is only recalculated every 2016 blocks (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty), under normal circumstances, it readjusts every 2016 x 10 minutes, or every 14 days.
7) If the hash rate increased before the adjustment block, then new blocks will appear faster than normal.
8) If the hash rate decreased before the adjustment block, then new blocks will appear slower than normal.
9) The problem we have here is, when Bitcoin Cash was created a few months ago (cloned from Bitcoin), we knew Bitcoin was going to have a lot more hash rate than Bitcoin Cash, so we couldn't clone the difficulty adjustment algorithm, we had to use our own. Otherwise Bitcoin Cash would need 20*10, or 200 minutes to mine a block (assuming Bitcoin Cash only had 5% of Bitcoin's hash power).
10) Bitcoin Cash was created in an emergency situation, so we didn't have much time to work on the difficulty algorithm, it was a rushed job and it didn't work well, it was good enough to help Bitcoin Cash survive, but not good enough to have a smooth curve, it was always either way too difficult or way too easy, new blocks were created either way too quick or way too slow, and it took too long to readjust again.
11) At this moment Bitcoin Cash is too easy to mine (was 4 times easier than normal, even more when BCH was worth more), about half the miners from BTC went to mine BCH instead, because it's more profitable.
12) Back to the 180,000 unconfirmed BTC transactions stuck in the system, normally, it takes 10 minutes to mine a block and confirm 2500tx, but now it takes 20 minutes per block because half the miners went to mine BCH.
13) 20 minutes per block * (180000tx/2500tx per block) = 24 hours. So it'd take 24 hours mine all the stuck tx and clear the jam, IF, and only IF there are no new transactions constantly coming in.
14) There are always new tx coming in, and old tx are being mined with half the miners, so we ended up with people waiting 72hrs and still couldn't get their BTC tx confirmed.
15) This would not happen if Blockstream Core increased the block size from 1MB to 2MB, but they deliberately stalled for years, so that one day they can force people to use their sidechain service by paying them fees (this is officially admitted by Blockstream).
16) BCH is currently too easy to mine, the new BCH difficulty adjustment algorithm (DAA) will improve the situation, it'll be much smoother at keeping the difficulty at around 10minutes per block regardless of hash rate changes, it'll no longer be too easy or too hard to mine for a sustained period of time.
17) The new algorithm will drive miners back to mine the more profitable BTC, at least until BCH is worth more than BTC to mine, some say the flippening price is about $4000, where BTC drops below $4000 and BCH goes above $4000, at which point, BCH will be more profitable to mine again, even with the new DAA.
18) Once that happens, BTC will likely enter a death spiral, because BTC is still using the 14days difficulty adjustment period.
19) The next difficulty adjustment block for BTC is 1842 blocks from now (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty).
20) This make it the perfect time to strike BTC, normally 1842 blocks @ 10mins per block, takes 13 days for the next readjustment.
21) But if we can push BCH's price towards $4000, and drive BTC's price down towards $4000 within a few days, then 10 days for the next readjustment can turn into 20 days (if BTC loses 50% miners), 20 can turn into 40 (if BTC loses 75% miners), eventually BTC will enter a death spiral and get stuck for months, during which its price will crash beyond recovery. This is known as the "flippening".
22) Flippening is what the people are currently working on, people are tired of paying $50 fee and waiting 24 hours to confirm a simple transaction on Blockstream Core's Bitcoin, that's just not how Bitcoin was designed to work.
23) We're going in for the kill, it might not happen tomorrow, but it will happen one way or another.
submitted by Gregory_Maxwell to btc [link] [comments]

It’s halvening-halvening!

We've just mined block #525000! Wohoo!
That means right now we're exactly halfway between Bitcoin's second and third halvening (the point in time where the block-reward drops by 50%, which happens every 210000 blocks or ~4 years). Why does this matter? Well, it means only half as many coins are being put into circulation, and thus only half as many new coins can potentially be sold to interested buyers. Supply vs. demand, yada, yada... the price should increase!
The last halvening took place on July 9 2016, which is 1 year 10 months 20 days ago (a total of 689 days). That means we are statistically about 41 days ahead of schedule to reach this halfway-point (which would be 730 days per design)! Thanks to the ever-rising hashing power, blocks have been found quicker than the targeted 10 minutes mark - and of course there's always variance!.
Sooo... where does that leave us?
When do you think this exciting day is going to take place? Any guesses? Let's revisit in approx. 2 years and figure out who won!
submitted by underkuerbis to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

What did I calculate wrong?

Alright, so I'm thinking about getting into mining Litecoin. I've never mined before, and sadly, my computer, even though it's great for gaming, just won't cut it because of ASIC computers. So I was looking at this one and it said the hash rate was 13.5 TH/s so I went to this website to see how much that would equate to in USD. It says I'd make more than $2 million every month, which I know is very very far off. But what did I do wrong to calculate it?
submitted by Ruben_Samich to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

DD on Crypto. Just kidding Allin AMD

Alright, I keep seeing you fucks talk about how "Bitcoin is going to make Nvidia/AMD go to the moon". I'm going to walk all you fucks through bitcoin, crypto currencies, and how they effect the GPU market.
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a decentralized ledger. That's pretty much it. A set number of bitcoin is generated per block, and each block is solved when a resulting hash is found for the corresponding proof of work. The difficulty is adjusted periodically based on a formula, meaning that as hash rate rises and falls, the number of bitcoins produced per day is roughly the same.
What does Bitcoin have to do with AMD and Nvidia?
Fucking nothing. Bitcoin is mined on proprietary hardware called Application-specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). Neither AMD or Nvidia produce these.
Why does everyone keep talking about Bitcoin and AMD then?
Because they're fucking retarded and you're listening to retards. Bitcoin runs on the SHA-256 Hashing Function which people have custom hardware for. The Crypto driving GPU sales is ETHEREUM, NOT BITCOIN
What the fuck is Ethereum then?
Don't worry about it. It's for smug assholes who are too edgy for Bitcoin. All you need to know is it runs on a different Hashing function than Bitcoin, so if you weren't a retard you'd probably realize that the proprietary hardware I talked about earlier won't work with it. Currently Ethereum is being mined the same way Bitcoin was when it first started; on GPUs.
When are you going to tell me what to buy
Shut the fuck up, learn something or kill your self.
How many GPUs are being used to mine currently?
Currently the Ethereum Hash Rate is 73,000 GH/s. For upcoming earnings, we should instead look at the period from April to June. April 1st shows a network hash rate of 16,500 GH/s, and June 31st shows 59,200 GH/s, meaning the network hash rate increased by 42,700 GH/s for this upcoming earnings report quarter.
I've linked a decent benchmark for GPU hashrate . You should notice that all of these are quoted in MH/s, versus the Network reporting in GH/s; there are ALOT of fucking GPUs running on the network. A top of the line 1080 puts out about 20-25 MH/s, a good Radeon card does about 30. As a rough estimate, lets assume that the average card mining Ethereum currently produces about 25 MH/s. 42,700GH/s / 25MH/s means that there are 1.7 MILLION more GPUs currently mining ethereum than there were at the beginning of Q1. Based on my personal observations being involved in this, AMD is actually taking a majority market share of the sold cards just due to their superior performance compared to Nvidia's 1080s, and I'd estimate that About 50-60% of the cards currently mining Ethereum are AMD Radeons.
What does this all mean?
AMD are selling their highest margin video cards faster than they can produce them, and at ~250$ a pop with 50%-60% market capture AMD will have sold roughly 200-300 million dollars more in video cards than they did last quarter. AMD quarterly revenue last reported was just under 1 Billion. This is a 20-30% increase in revenue from last quarter, where Ethereum Hash Rate only increased by about 10,000GH/s. Even assuming a modest 30% margin for their video cards, AMD will still have almost 60 million in unexpected earnings this quarter due to crypto mining, which translates to about .06-.1 per share in earnings.
tl;dr
Ethereum will make AMD beat revenue by 20-30%. BUY AMD YOU CUCKS.
submitted by Askmeaboutmyautism to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Mining has tripled from a year ago, the chips added cost $300M+. Now the network uses at least 300MW of electricity continuously at a cost of $50M/year. This is about what a city of 200k Americans use.

tl;dr: Bitcoin network is running on at least 230k Antminer S9s, using 320MW (~$50M/year), with $345M worth of chips coming online in the past year.
Someone check my napkin math, I was looking at hashrate charts and just started writing stuff.
Antminer S9 is the most efficient and popular miner right now so I'm using their stats. I expect efficiency to improve marginally in the future but at a much reduced rate.
$2,200 capital cost 13.5 TH/s 1400 W 104 J/TH
Network hash rate is 3,155,225 TH/s. If we go with a conservative estimate of power consumption, lets assume the entire network is Antminer S9. This gives 232,000 Antminers, which would use 327MW, for a total consumption of 2,866,000,000 kWh/year. The scale is sort of crazy to think about, the network uses about 10% of the electricity generated by some of the worlds biggest hydroelectric plants. It's not insignificant, but it's going to have to grow a lot to be noticeable at the world scale.
The average American uses 1,380 watts. So instead of running the bitcoin network, you could run a city that provides for 237k Americans.
This means 1 bitcoin represents roughly the consumption of 1/89th of an American. Consumption is roughly the same order of magnitude as production, so lets just say that a bitcoin is 1/100th the output of the average American, including all children and unemployed people. So if you own 100 bitcoins you basically own the equivalent production of a human being, in that the bitcoin commands a certain fraction of continuous energy expenditure in the form of hashpower. After all what is human labor except for skilled energy expenditure? (Not totally serious about this, it's fun to abuse units.)
Maybe the more interesting story is the real money expenses. Here things are a little bit more fuzzy because we don't know what it actually costs bitmain to make an S9. Regardless, we can assume that facility costs add a little, and use $2,200 as an estimate for capex necessary to get one operational.
Hash rate has tripled since a year ago. This means at minimum, 157k S9s have come online in the past year. Using $2,200, this is capex of $345M. (Important to note, part of bitcoin's security is that these chips are specific purpose SHA256(SHA256()), so this capex can't just flee to mining ethereum or something, it's in bitcoin for the long haul.)
The electricity costs are also pretty fuzzy, in America it's ~$0.12/kWh on average, in China it can be $0. If you use American retail average, this is another $340M a year (this is ridiculous, don't quote me on this, no miners are using PG&E). If you take a conservative estimate of $0.02kWh, you still get $57M.
I don't know how to estimate the cooling costs, maybe someone can just let me know if it's significant relative to the chip usage. If it's 1% of what the chips use then meh, but if it's 2x what the chips use then I'll put more effort into estimating it.
Hopefully this gives you some ammunition for the next time someone asserts that bitcoin is ethereal or can vanish like tulips. Tulips don't run on hundreds of thousands of computers in datacenters around the world using the electricity of a small country.
submitted by Polycephal_Lee to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Hashrate Stabilizing Near 35 Exahash/s After 29 Percent Drop in Mining Difficulty

Bitcoin Hashrate Stabilizing Near 35 Exahash/s After 29 Percent Drop in Mining Difficulty

https://preview.redd.it/v4fhelfwby521.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=51d0d741515616618e7a201e5376a8d8abf1682d
https://cryptoiq.co/bitcoin-hashrate-stabilizing-near-35-exahash-s-after-29-percent-drop-in-mining-difficulty/
Bitcoin’s hashrate had been rising exponentially from 2009 through mid-2018, increasing through the megahash (M/H), gigahash (G/H), terrahash (T/H), petahash (P/H), and exahash (E/H) ranges. The hashrate first exceeded 60 EH/s in August 2018, and then the exponential increase gave way to stabilization.
In September and October 2018, the hashrate remained stable, averaging above 50 EH/s, simultaneous with the price of Bitcoin being stable near $6,500. Then the price of Bitcoin plummeted starting in mid-November to as low as $3,100 in December. The hashrate of Bitcoin collapsed to 32 EH/s during this market crash, implicitly indicating 20-30 EH/s being forced offline due to a lack of profitability, which represents billions of dollars of equipment.
However, the collapse in hashrate may be coming to an end, at least for now, due to the price of Bitcoin rising back to the $4,000 level combined with a 29 percent decrease in mining difficulty.

https://preview.redd.it/fn5itizzby521.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b65208f22986a6c5409d40255a20e805354d121
As can be seen in the chart, Bitcoin’s hashrate appears to have stabilized in December, breaking the trend of constant decline.
There are two factors that are bringing about stabilization. First off, the price of Bitcoin has stopped decreasing and has risen back to where it was at the beginning of December near $4,000. A stable Bitcoin price is a necessary ingredient for a stable hashrate.
More importantly, the mining difficulty of Bitcoin has dropped from 7.184 trillion to 5.106 trillion, a 29 percent decline, which makes Bitcoin mining 29 percent more profitable per unit of hashrate. As long as price does not continue to fall Bitcoin will find an equilbrium hashrate since difficulty adjusts downwards as miners turn off their rigs. The point at which the difficulty stops adjusting downwards is the equilibrium point, a steady state where the existing hashrate can profitably mine or break even without the loss of further hashrate.
Currently ,Bitcoin’s hash rate is near 36 EH/s, which would yield a 2.6 percent increase in difficulty if the difficulty re-adjustment happened now. This suggests that the equilibrium level for Bitcoin’s hashrate, at least at the current Bitcoin price of $4,000, is right around the current hashrate.
That being said, the price of Bitcoin going up or down can rapidly change the situation. If Bitcoin retraces back towards $3,000, then the hashrate is likely to fall further, and if it rallies strongly then the rigs that were turned off would quickly be switched on again.
The fact that there are 20-30 EH/s of rigs shutoff makes the future a bit gloomy for Bitcoin miners, since increases in Bitcoin’s price will not lead to higher profits for miners until all of those rigs are switched back on.
There used to be a lag effect between Bitcoin’s price rise and the switching on of new rigs, which allowed miners to make bigger profits before difficulty adjusted upwards. Until the hashrate exceeds 60 EH/s, the time it takes to switch on the dormant rigs will be instant, whereas before miners had to wait weeks or months to order rigs and then switch them on. Based on the data, Bitcoin would probably have to be at $7,000 or higher before Bitcoin miners start seeing increased profit margins.
Looking at the broader picture though, it is certainly good news that the Bitcoin mining hashrate has stopped going down since this means Bitcoin will continue to be extremely secure and decentralized. A rapidly dwindling hashrate would make Bitcoin less secure and more centralized, two factors that would threaten Bitcoin’s reputation.
submitted by turtlecane to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Segwit not going to happen until August .

Jihan going to F*** us until August to prove a point he can do whatever he wants . Antminer L3+ Was produced in November 2016 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/litecoin/difficulty at that time the whole Litecoin Network was 1,500 Gh/s . From November 2016 till February 2017 Litecoin network increased another 1000 Gh/s to 2,500 Gh/s . Therefore, Jihan must produced around 2000 Antminer L3+ running at 504 Mh/s and He might sold some or all of it . The total of all of the Gh/s Litecoin community has is around 2,300 Gh/s , anything above is in Jihan controlled. Based on the time frame Jihan sales Antminer L3+ , He sales a few for April 15 , May 15 , June 15 but a lot for July 15 and July 15 is still selling . He will always have on hand more Gh/s to block 75% Segwit and also USAF at 51%. People are buying Antminer L3+ like crazy. He collects the money, it won't be refunded (you can't force a refund by wire transfers or Bitcoin transfers) . I think that he will produce around 14,000 Antminer L3+ to bring the whole Litecoin Network to around 10,000 Gh/s by around August with a lot of L3+ ship around July 15. Why 14,000 Antminer L3+ miners because it is give Antminer L3+ owners a little profit. Why July 15 because it going to give him enough time to produce fourteen thousands Antminer L3+ miners. Segwit will happen around August because at that time Jihan won't have the hash rate to block USAF and Litecoin price will go up. Jihan starts producing new Miner Antminer L4 .. to be continue ...
submitted by upcdeal to litecoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin network projected to consume no energy by 2020

I have seen quite a lot of conserned articles about energy consumption of Bitcoin. They seem to be based on the assumption that we would need more hash rate to handle more transactions. Obviously this is not the case. Hash rate has dropped from 2 months ago and transaction count has gone up so I did the maths and came to a conclusion that the more we do transactions the more hash rate and energy consumption drops. If we keep adding transactions we are going to consume no energy by 2020, and might even start to produce it instead.

Sources: https://www.blockchain.com/fi/charts/n-transactions?timespan=60days
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
submitted by JuhoMaatta to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

False Litecoin narratives and short memories

The past week or two, the narrative with /Bitcoin is that Jihan "Hitler" Wu is blocking SegWit on Litecoin, because he will know its such a superior technology and once it activated on Litecoin, its superiority will be revealed to the world and he will have no choice but to accept SegWit on Bitcoin protocol.
So the accusations have been plenty, including that last week during a Litecoin Hash Rate spike, it was clearly Jihan and Bitmain running scared for their lives at the potential of SegWit on Litecoin, and doing everything in their power to try to block it and will die trying
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitmain-suddenly-increases-antpool-hashrate-litecoin-block-segwit-activation/
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1875667.0;all
https://i.reddit.com/litecoin/comments/64asih/ltc1btc_and_antpool_increasing_hashrate_to_block/
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/64cksh/jihan_plays_pranks_on_litecoin_and_directs/?ref=search_posts
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/65hzc7/jihan_just_declared_war_on_litecoin_segwit_ove
and then they went even further, to make that claim that Jihan "Nazi" Wu is literally halting shipments of Litecoin miners, so he can personally mine with them to block SegWit! What a bastard criminal with no morals! Has he no shame?!
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/664bvw/is_jihan_mining_with_his_unshipped_miners_to/
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1875667.20
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/661ycw/more_jihan_games_litecoin_miners_which_were_due/
So now, after all that, Jihan and Bitmain today decide to support SegWit on Litecoin, simply after a conference, and agreeing that after SegWit activation there would be a blocksize increase in the future. Wow, pretty non-climatic and boring.
Narrative collapse, and by the way there is no crash in Litecoin hashrate,. Jihan apparently who was "using customers already paid for miners to rig the SegWit vote" somehow is not pulling all his fake hashrate? Why not, SegWit battle is over, shouldn't it be ok for him to pull the fake Litecoin miners now?
Or maybe this never even happened, and it was just some complete batshit crazy narrative created and propagated by a subreddit that is highly censored. So what will become of this? We can clearly see all this hype and hysteria for the past 2 weeks on /bitcoin is completely false and narrative proved fake and lies.
Will people remember this? Or its just a tool to get what they want by spreading lies, then forget about it once its passed and move onto the next fake scenario? Are people smart enough to catch on, or does the censorship breed and curate non-thinking and complacent environments?
Maybe if Core proposed SegWit + 2-4MB HF for Bitcoin Bitmain would agree to it too?
submitted by squarepush3r to btc [link] [comments]

Has the Bitcoin Hash Rate Peaked? Comparisons with Oil Show Interesting Findings

Has the Bitcoin Hash Rate Peaked? Comparisons with Oil Show Interesting Findings

https://preview.redd.it/85lpl2md4e221.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d3bab69f0570a96f55d790d25f1b1ab08c0a49b
https://cryptoiq.co/the-bitcoin-mining-hash-rate-has-similarities-to-peak-oil/
The Bitcoin mining hash rate had been exponentially increasing on average since the genesis block in 2009, from MH/s, to GH/s, to TH/s, to PH/s, to EH/s, and it reached an all-time record high of 62 EH/s on 26 August 2018. Since this peak was reached, the Bitcoin mining hash rate gradually plateaued and has now decreased. The chart of Bitcoin mining hash rate actually looks quite similar to a peak oil chart except on a much faster time-scale, as can be seen in the comparison between Bitcoin’s hash rate over the course of 2 years from Blockchain.com and North Sea oil production from an article in The Oil Drum: Europe by Euan Mearns. As explained below, the dynamics between peak oil and peak Bitcoin mining are similar, with the key difference that Bitcoin mining is decentralized and oil is not.

https://preview.redd.it/op5ept1g4e221.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b3b35eb631f31a64ed7beb01f283832bd231e4c

https://preview.redd.it/nfyhlf4h4e221.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=46a0ca7e11f274c5678f6421b1eebb788eab5197
Geologist M. King Hubbert is the founder of the peak oil theory, which states that there is a point when the maximum extraction rate of petroleum is reached, after which a terminal decline in production ensues. The peak rate of extraction of Bitcoin of course occurred during the period after the genesis block and before the first block halving, when the block reward was at its maximum of 50 Bitcoins. However, this is not the peak rate of mining profitability, since Bitcoin increased in price by orders of magnitude through the year 2017. The peak rate of Bitcoin mining profits undoubtedly was simultaneous with Bitcoin’s all-time record high of USD 20,000 in December 2017.
The reason the peak hash rate did not coincide with the peak rate of Bitcoin mining profits is because the rally happened so quickly that mining operations were not able to add rigs fast enough, so there was a lag effect. Even for mining operations with large amounts of capital it can take months to obtain the amount of mining equipment that they want, and for other mining operations it took even longer because they had to obtain investors, buy land, build infrastructure, and only then could they install the rigs and begin hashing.
The Bitcoin mining hash rate chart implicitly indicates that 30 EH/s of Bitcoin mining equipment has been taken offline due to lack of profitability, which represents tens of billions of USD of wasted rigs. This suggests that Bitcoin miners were caught by surprise by the decline in Bitcoin’s price from USD 20,000 to less than USD 4,000 as of 4 December 2018.
Coming back to the peak oil comparison, the current Bitcoin mining scene is like a rapid version of peak oil, combined with lack of coordination. Oil mining is a centralized and coordinated activity, where the oil is prospected, land is leased out and then an appropriate number of wells are drilled. With oil mining, companies cannot drill as many wells as they want, or drill wells on someone else’s lease, since this is all closely controlled by contractual agreements. Bitcoin mining is decentralized, and no one has a lease or contract to only mine with a certain amount of hash rate. Anyone in the world can run as much Bitcoin mining rigs as they can afford. The effect is that people all around the world are sticking their straws into the Bitcoin mining network all at the same time, and they sucked it dry. Essentially, so many people started up new mining operations at once without coordination, that the Bitcoin mining hash rate went way past its equilibrium, which hurt everyone involved. This is akin to if oil drilling was a decentralized process, and anyone who wanted to drill for oil could drill in the same field. The oil field would be sucked dry really quick, and then most of the drills would be shut down due to lack of profits.
There is hope for Bitcoin miners however. The price of Bitcoin simply has to rally, and all of the disenfranchised miners could restart their rigs, and then it would be back to the races and new rigs could begin being added. However, due to the decentralization of Bitcoin mining, the network hash rate will likely periodically rise past its equilibrium point, leading to catastrophic conditions for miners like we are experiencing today at points in the future. The only thing that could prevent the scenario we are experiencing today is a Bitcoin rally that lasts forever, which is obviously not possible.
James McAvity tweeted that Bitcoin mining is still profitable in the current environment, and does some simple linear calculations to prove this point. He also argues that miners are forced to keep mining due to business agreements, choose to HODL in expectation of a rally, and continue mining in expectation of a downward difficulty adjustment as other miners go offline.
https://twitter.com/jamesmcavity/status/1069669073552736256
Some of what McAvity says is true, but the reality is that Bitcoin mining is a highly non-linear system, and calculating the support level for mining is somewhat pointless, since it is different for every miner. Bitcoin mining profitability depends on Bitcoin’s price, the Bitcoin network hash rate which is directly correlated to mining difficulty, and the technological efficiency of Bitcoin mining rigs. These 3 factors are related in a non-linear and ever-changing way.
Instead of trudging away at trying to develop a set of equations that determine mining hash rate behavior, one could simply look at the Bitcoin mining hash rate chart at the beginning of this article to understand what is going on. Bitcoin mining profitability is different for each individual miner, and the hash rate has trended downwards as individual miners have made the decision to shut down rigs. Clearly there was a fundamental mining profitability support level in the USD 6,000-7,000 range, since that is where Bitcoin’s price was when mining peaked and plateaued. There are clearly numerous miners who became unprofitable on the descent from that level to less than USD 4,000 today, and now approximately 50% of the Bitcoin mining equipment that exists cannot profitably mine. The decrease in Bitcoin’s mining difficulty of 15% on 3 December 2018 could help bring some of those miners back online, at least if the price stays at current levels around USD 4,000, but this will not change the overall trend.
When it comes down to it, Bitcoin’s price is in control of Bitcoin mining profitability, and if the price goes up we could see a reversal of the hash rate downtrend and eventually a 2nd peak in Bitcoin’s network hash rate. However, if price continues to go down, the Bitcoin mining hash rate chart will follow a similar pattern to peak oil charts. The reality will likely be a combination of both. Bitcoin bear markets tend to last years, and get more severe, but eventually the rally comes and then Bitcoin exceeds its all-time record high. This would lead to a steady decrease in Bitcoin’s mining hash rate like the peak oil chart, followed by a rapid re-engagement of old mining rigs that have been taken offline, and then the addition of new generation Bitcoin mining rigs once the equilibrium hash rate exceeds 60 EH/s.
submitted by turtlecane to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Hashflare payout

Please note this is NOT a promotion of cloud mining. In fact the opposite. Some time back I wanted to compare an S9 payouts to the equivalent hash rate on Hashflare since sometimes information shared on the internet is not always accurate. Anyway, I was fortunate to stop there as it was quickly apparent cloud mining companies do not have your interests at heart until theirs are covered, some extra profit for them is covered, then ok a little for you.
Even more ludicrous though is Hashflare's recent stance given the difficulty spike in Bitcoin makes Hashflare mining unprofitable. So of course they raise the minimum payout to 0.03 and the result is you can't withdraw. When difficulty hit the fan my balance was around 0.025 (of course it was) so I wrote them a nice letter asking them to reduce the minimum payout, so I can withdraw. I was not angry, I am aware of the TOS, I purchased the hash rate knowing I might not make money. Their response was pretty legalized. "Suspended?" Um... ok guys can I just withdraw and move forward? I don't really care.
Greetings,
With the latest spike of mining difficulty exceeding 14% (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty), while the price of Bitcoin continues to decline, the payout was lower than the maintenance fee, which resulted in the balance not increasing and remaining the same. This means that your balance will neither decrease nor increase. Also, due to the fact that contract payouts are lower than maintenance fees, forecast revenue shows zeros.
According to our Terms of Service, the mining process continues while said mining is profitable. This means the Mining process will stop if the Maintenance and Electricity Fees become larger than the Payout. If mining remains unprofitable for 21 consecutive days the Service is permanently terminated (Hashrate type specific). During the consecutive 21 day period, Payouts and Fees will also be temporarily stopped. If during the suspension period, the Contract-related mining factors (such as the exchange rate and mining difficulty) that are outside of HashFlare's control will change favorably, making mining profitable again, the Service will be unsuspended and contracts reactivated.
For the time being, mining has been suspended, but the contracts remain active. In light of this, manual withdrawal requests (if your balance does not meet the minimum withdrawal amount) cannot be fulfilled. A manual withdrawal when a user's balance is lower than the minimum withdrawal amount can only be performed if the contracts have already expired.
Also, according to our Terms of Service which you have agreed to when registering within our system, all hashrate purchases are final and non-refundable. It is not possible to cancel a contract and request a refund for the remainder of the time that the contract would have still been active for.
Unfortunately, we cannot influence the global factors that form profitability, neither can we take responsibility for it. The main factor that influences mining profitability is mining difficulty, and you can find the publicly available growth chart here and here. Cryptocurrency mining, trading, handling and etc. are generally highly volatile and unpredictable.
All risks are stated in our Terms of Service.
We are considering all possible options, while taking into account the available resources, to optimize the mining process where it is possible.
Thank you for your patience and for staying with us!
Best Regards, Kirill HashFlare.io Support Team
submitted by trnbays to BitcoinMining [link] [comments]

New people please read this. [upvote for visibility please]

I am seeing too many new people come and and getting confused. Litecoin wiki isn't the greatest when it comes to summing up things so I will try to do things as best as I can. I will attempt to explain from what I have learned and answer some questions. Hopefully people smarter than me will also chime in. I will keep this post updated as much as I can.
Preface
Litecoin is a type to electronic currency. It is just like Bitcoin but it there are differences. Difference explained here.
If you are starting to mine now chances are that you have missed the Bitcoin mining train. If you really want your time and processing power to not go to waste you should mine LTC because the access to BTC from there is much easier.
Mining. What is it?
Let's get this straight. When making any financial commitment to this be prepared to do it with "throw away" money. Mining is all about the hashrate and is measured in KH/s (KiloHash/sec). Unlike the powerful ASICs (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) that are used to mine bitcoins using hashrates in the GH/s and even TH/s, litecoin mining has only been able to achieve at the very best MH/s. I think the highest I've seen is 130 MH/s so far. Which leads us to our next section.
Mining Hardware
While CPU mining is still a thing it is not as powerful as GPU mining. Your laptop might be able to get 1 a month. However, I encourage you to consult this list first. List of hardware comparison You will find the highest of processors can maybe pull 100 KH/s and if we put this into a litecoin mining calculator it doesn't give us much.
Another reason why you don't want to mine with your CPU is pretty simple. You are going to destroy it.
So this leaves us with GPUs. Over the past few months (and years) the HD 7950 has been the favourite because it drains less power and has a pretty good hashrate. But recently the introduction of the R9 290 (not the x) has changed the game a bit. People are getting 850 KH/s - 900 KH/s with that card. It's crazy.
Should I mine?
Honestly given the current difficulty you can make a solid rig for about $1100 with a hashrate of 1700 KH/s which would give you your investment back in about a month and a half. I am sure people out there can create something for much cheaper. Here is a good example of a setup as suggested by dystopiats
PCPartPicker part list / Price breakdown by merchant / Benchmarks
Type Item Price
CPU AMD Sempron 145 2.8GHz Single-Core Processor $36.01 @ Amazon
Motherboard ASRock 970 EXTREME4 ATX AM3+ Motherboard $99.48 @ OutletPC
Memory Crucial Ballistix Tactical Tracer 4GB (1 x 4GB) DDR3-1866 Memory $59.99 @ Newegg
Video Card Sapphire Radeon HD 7950 3GB Video Card (3-Way CrossFire) $245.38 @ Newegg
Video Card Sapphire Radeon HD 7950 3GB Video Card (3-Way CrossFire) $245.38 @ Newegg
Video Card Sapphire Radeon HD 7950 3GB Video Card (3-Way CrossFire) $245.38 @ Newegg
Power Supply SeaSonic Platinum 860W 80+ Platinum Certified Fully-Modular ATX Power Supply $146.98 @ SuperBiiz
Total
Prices include shipping, taxes, and discounts when available. $1078.60
Generated by PCPartPicker 2013-11-29 00:52 EST-0500
Estimated Hashrate (with GPU overclocking) : 1900 KH/s
Hardware Fundamentals
CPU - Do you need a powerful CPU? No but make sure it is a decent one. AMD CPUs are cheap to buy right now with tons of power. Feel free to use a Sempron or Celeron depending on what Motherboard you go with.
RAM - Try to get at least 4 GB so as to not run into any trouble. Memory is cheap these days. I am saying 4 GB only because of Windoze. If you are plan to run this on Linux you can even get away with less memory.
HDD Any good ol 7200 RPM hard drive will do. Make sure it is appropriate. No point in buying a 1TB hard drive. Since, this is a newbie's guide I assumed most won't know how to run linux, but incase you do you can get a USB flash drive and run linux from it thus removing the need for hard drive all toghether. (thanks dystopiats)
GPU - Consult the list of hardware of hardware I posted above. Make sure you consider the KH/s/W ratio. To me the 290 is the best option but you can skimp down to 7950 if you like.
PSU - THIS IS BLOODY IMPORTANT. Most modern GPUs are power hungry so please make sure you are well within the limits of your power consumption.
MOTHERBOARD - Ok, so a pretty popular board right now is Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD3 and the ASRock 970 Extreme4. Some people are even going for Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD5 and even the mighty Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD7 because it has more PCI-E slots. 6 to be exact. However you may not need that much. With risers you can get more shoved into less.
PCI-E RISERS - These are called risers. They come in x16 to x16 and x1 to x16 connections. Here is the general rule of thumb. This is very important. Always get a POWERED riser otherwise you will burn a hole in your MoBo. A powered rise as a molex connector so that additional power from PSU can be supplied.
When it comes to hardware I've provided the most basic knowledge you need. Also, take a look at cryptobader's website. This is very helpful. Please visit the mining section of Litecoin Forums and the litecoinmining subreddit for more indepth info.
Mining Software
Now that you have assembled your hardware now you need to get into a pool. But before you do that you need a mining software. There are many different ones but the one that is most popular is cgminer. Download it and make sure you read the README. It is a very robust piece of software. Please read this if you want to know more. (thanks BalzOnYer4Head)
Mining Pools
Now that your hardware and software is ready. I know nothing about solo mining other than the fact that you have to be very lucky and respectable amount of hashing power to decrypt a block. So it is better to join pools. I have been pool hopping for a bit and really liked give-me-coin previously known to the community as give-me-ltc. They have a nice mobile app and 0% pool fees. This is really a personal preference. Take a look at this list and try some yourself.
How do I connect to a pool?
Most pools will give you a tutorial on how to but the basics are as follows:
  • Signup for a pool
  • Create a worker for your account. Usually one worker per rig (Yes people have multiple rigs) is generally a good idea.
  • Create a .run file. Open up notepad and type cgminer.exe -o (address_to_the_miningpool:port_number) -u (yourusername.workername) -p (your_worker_password_if_you_made_one). Then File>Save As>runcgminer.run (Make sure the drop down is set to "All Files" and .txt document.) and save in the same folder as cgminer. That's it.
  • Double click on runcgminer.run (or whatever you named it) and have fun mining.
Mining Profitability
This game is not easy. If it was, practically everyone would be doing it. This is strictly a numbers game and there are calculations available that can help you determine your risk on your investments. 4 variables you need to consider when you are starting to mine:
Hardware cost: The cost of your physical hardware to run this whole operation.
Power: Measured in $/KwH is also known as the operating cost.
Difficulty rate: To put it in layman's terms the increase in difficulty is inversely proportional to amount of coin you can mine. The harder the difficulty the harder it is to mine coin. Right now difficulty is rising at about 18% per 3 days. This can and will change since all you miners are soon going to jump on the band wagon.
Your sanity: I am not going to tell you to keep calm and chive on because quiet frankly that is stupid. What I will tell you not to get too carried away. You will pull you hair out. Seriously.
Next thing you will need is a simple tool. A mining profitability calculator. I have two favourite ones.
coinwarz
I like this one cause it is simple. The fields are self explanatory. Try it.
bitcoinwisdom
I like this one because it is a more real life scenario calculator and more complicated one (not really). It also takes increasing difficulty into account.
Please note: This is the absolute basic info you need. If you have more questions feel free to ask and or google it!
More Below.
submitted by craeyon to litecoin [link] [comments]

Next block reward halving date is now estimated at: May 25, 2016

We've now reached a bitcoin mining difficulty of 40,000,000,000. Judging by the conditions present at the first half of the year, we should've hit this level some time ago. But the increase in hash rate has slowed down recently, according to the chart on Bitcoin Wisdom.
If we stay at the current difficulty from now on, with no percentage increase, then we can expect to see the next block reward halving on July 31, 2016, matching bitcoinclock.com. But that's not the case in reality; the difficulty is still rising.
If you average together the last 20 changes in difficulty increases, you get 11.98%. Assuming current mining conditions and continuing production of ASIC chips, we can calculate a more accurate estimated date for the next halving.
The equation:
(Number_of_Blocks_Remaining) / (1+Average_Difficulty_Change) * Average_Seconds_per_Block = Seconds_Until_Next_Halving
Inputs:
Next halving block = 420000
Current block = 330788
Average seconds per block = 600
Average difficulty change = 0.1198
This equates to: (420000-330788) / (1+0.1198) * 600 = 47800678 Seconds
Or 553 days from now.
submitted by klynastor to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

What resources do you use to stay on top of upcoming new miners and when to buy?

TLDR: I've been researching how to get into mining for the past 5-6 months, but I feel like I'm always hearing about what I should have bought a month ago, but never what's coming up that I should buy. Any resources or advice would be greatly appreciated.
Here's the research and what I've been doing for reference:
I got signed up on the mailing list for Bitmain and get their updates now, but still feel like I'm missing so much. Like, they didn't even mention the Antminer A3 had dropped in their emails.
I found this list - https://www.asicminervalue.com/opportunities
But I don't know how reliable it is. Also, I've seen people here saying their next big purchase will be the Avalon 821, but the above chart has it rated pretty low on profitability. It rates the Antminer A3 815Gh (at $1888) with a 79 day ROI, so I put both of them into some of the calculators I've found, but even that isn't making any sense. Like on the exact same miner I'll get results that say it'll either be totally unprofitable on one or that it will make a few grand in profit on another calculator. I honestly have no idea what to believe.
Here's some of the calculators I've been using: http://www.mycryptobuddy.com/BitcoinMiningCalculator https://bitcoinwisdom.com/litecoin/calculator https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculatoltc?HashingPower=280&HashingUnit=MH%2FsPowerConsumption=1800&CostPerkWh=0.01
Supposedly this site has 74 Antminer A3 815GH Miners in stock. If I can even trust this site (found a few reviews that were positive). Curious if anyone thinks this is a good buy, or if I should wait for something new to hit? And if I should wait, how do I figure out when that's happening so that I can actually buy them when they're released?
submitted by notjadedyet to BitcoinMining [link] [comments]

A long term outlook at the Dogecoin economy and currency (intro & pt 1 - mining power and a 51% attack) [meta]

Dogecoin is awesome. Dogecoin is too the moon!
But like any moon mission, it's worth asking the question what can go wrong on the way there. What stakeholders exist in the Dogecoin economy, what outcomes are possible in Dogecoin's journey, and how those outcomes could affect the behavior of the stakeholders.
This post is designed to encourage you to ask questions about every aspect of how Dogecoin functions. I do not intend this as investment advice in any sense of the word and have worked hard to avoid any discussion about what will happen to the price of dogecoin in the future.
In this post I will outline the stakeholders, outline the factors that affect the currency, and address the question of how Hashrate is related to miners decisions, and how it protects Dogecoin from a 51% attack
A few of the key facts I'll discuss:
Disclosure: I own a small amount of Dogecoin and Bitcoin (less than $100 in total at current market value) It's purely for entertainment and research purposes.
At the moment, I see the following people in the Dogecoin community:
  1. Long term investors (individuals holding Dogecoin either as a store of value or an investment opportunity)
  2. Short term investors (individuals holding Dogecoin as an investment opportunity)
  3. Professional Dogecoin miners (individuals choosing to mine Dogecoin rather than other Scrypt based coins, motivated by income)
  4. Community Dogecoin miners (individuals choosing to mine Dogecoin because they like Dogecoin, not motivated by income)
  5. Dogecoin buyers and sellers (individuals using dogecoin as a short term medium of exchange)
  6. Dogecoin community members (individuals holding Dogecoin for fun and/or using it for non-monetary compensation {irrelevant of market value}
  7. Dogecoin developers (Individuals who will decide what changes are made to the Dogecoin protocol {some of which may affect market behavior})
It's important to note that individuals in the community can be in more than one category (someone who holds dogecoin for short term investment can also buy and sell dogecoin on the market)
Variables which can affect the above stakeholders:
A. The average (and future) mining reward from a block of Dogecoin per kilohash hour. (How much can I make mining Dogecoin, what will Dogecoin inflation look like)
B. The total mining power (in GH) focused on Dogecoin vs other Scrypt coins (the more distributed miners, the safer the blockchain)
C. The price of Dogecoin/Market Cap (to determine if Dogecoin is worth mining)
D. The market perception about the future price of Dogecoin (to determine if Dogecoin is worth holding/spending and worth mining) {this is harder to quantify}
E. The Transaction volume of Dogecoin (to determine the community interest in the currency)
F. The reliability of Fiat to Dogecoin exchanges and Crypto to Dogecoin Exchanges (to facilitate an efficient/accurate market price for Dogecoin)
G. The speed of Dogecoin conversion into fiat (for instant transactions by merchants)
H. The development pipeline for new Dogecoin compatible mining hardware (how far off are ASICs for Scrypt)
As I see it, there's one major outcome that affects the entire community equally.
A 51% attack on Dogecoin would be of massive adverse value to everyone (except the individuals perpetrating the attack). If Dogecoin's blockchain was corrupted, It would cease to function as a useful medium of exchange and as a store of value. Miners would leave because the value would plummet from it not being trusted. Short term investors would dump their holdings as they started to lose value. Long term investors would do the same.
The currency would die.
How does one prevent a 51% attack? Have a large total mining hashrate in the hands of a diverse number of miners. If the cost of running a 51% attack is so high it's not worth the money, it won't happen.
This leads to a fundamental question: what keeps people mining Dogecoin?
Dogecoin miners are separated into two groups (as mentioned above), Professional miners who will go where they can make the most money, and amateur miners who will mine Dogecoin because they like the currency.
From a community health perspective, the professional miners are the main concern (with a few caveats). If professional miners leave, that affects trust in Dogecoin.
So what keeps them mining for us? There are two major Scrypt based cryptos out right now, Litecoin and Dogecoin, and the community, as of this writing, is essentially split 50/50 is split 55/45 in favor of Dogecoin.
What this reflects is that miners expect to make more money mining Dogecoin than litecoin. Since an efficient market exists for trading Litecoin into Bitcoin and Dogecoin into Bitcoin, it seems to this author that value should be assessed in terms of current actual value (that miners choose what coin to mine based on how much they can sell it for today)
Since two large scale profitable currencies exist (LTE and DOGE) miners are going to choose the more profitable up until the point where the two converge. This depends on three variables:
Difficulty, total hash rate, and average reward.
As of Jan 23, DOGE is a little over twice as profitable as LTC.
This is what has prompted the major switch of the past few days.
I need help modeling is how much total value comes from LTC and how much from DOGE (essentially, if I owned the entire mining pool and split my work equally, how much could I make from each currency?)
At some point, enough miners will leave LTC that it's difficulty will drop. Assuming LTC retains its value (in fiat), falling difficulty will make it more profitable. Eventually, its profitability will once again match that of Dogecoin, and miners will stop leaving LTC for DOGE.
The problem is that as miners leave, it is possible that the currency value will drop as well.
On Jan 20, LTC had a 115GH rate, Doge had 57GH. Doge was trading at .00003 LTC. On Jan 23, Doge had 95, LTC had 75, and Doge more than doubled in price to .0000675. (Litecoin has also dropped about $1 (~5%) in value in USD over the same period.)
This is likely why even though Dogecoin has more miners than LTC, Litecoin is still less profitable for Miners (at this precise moment). Dogecoin has increased in currency value more than it has decreased in mining value.
Thus, the fundamental question is what kind of change is required in the price of DOGE/LTC and what hashing ratio will LTC and DOGE settle on based on their current price. It's important to remember that LTC has not dropped in value significantly, Doge has simply rose dramatically.
Fundamentally, as long as LTC has some value, it will have some percentage of Scrypt hashing power devoted to it. The same is true for Doge. So as long as people still want both currencies to some degree, mining power will be split. *Depending on that split, Dogecoin will be safe if it has enough mining power to prevent a malicious third party, and if that mining power remains in the hands of a diverse group of DOGE mining pools. *
My next post will address the different needs of the Long term investor, the short term investor, and the casual owner. (Some want a long term stable currency, some want a dramatic increase in price (even if it hurts the currency long term)
Please feel free to leave comments about anything you disagree with, any changes I should make, any thoughts about other factors that could affect the health of the currency, any other subjects you'd like to see explored. Thanks!
submitted by harddata to dogecoin [link] [comments]

Updated FAQs for newcomers

TL:DR: Don't bother mining if you want to get rich yo. You're way too late to the party.
Welcome to the exciting and often stressful world of bitcoin! You are wondering what looks like a once in a lifetime opportunity to get rich quick. Of course you guys probably heard about this "mining" process but what is this?
Simply put, a bitcoin mining machine that performs complicated calculations and when deemed correct by the network, receives a block which contains 25 bitcoins (XBT). This is how bitcoins are generated. So your brain instantly thinks, "Holy shit, how can I get on this gold rush?"
Before you proceed further, I would like to explain the concept of mining further. Bitcoin is limited 21m in circulation. It is coded to release a certain number of blocks at a certain time frame, ie: this year the network will release close to 500,000 bitcoins. What this means is that the more people (or specifically the amount of mining power) mine, the less each person gets. The network tries to keep to this time frame through the process of difficulty adjustments which makes the calculations harder and this happens every 2 weeks. So every 2 weeks, you get less bitcoins with the same hash rate (mining power) based on what the difficulty changes are. Recently, the changes have been pretty staggering, jumping 226% in 2 months. You can see the difficulty changes here.
Now, why are these changes so large?
A bit of a simple history. Bitcoin's algorithm runs on SHA-256. This algorithm can be solved using many hardware, from CPU to GPU and dedicated hardware (Application Specific Integrated Circuits). When bitcoin first started, mining on CPU was a trivial process, you can pretty much earn 50 XBT (the block size then) every few hours between Q1 and Q2 of 2010.
In late 2010, due to the difficulty increase that is reducing the effectiveness of CPU mining, people started to harness GPU mining. Only AMD GPU's architecture design are better optimized for bitcoin mining so this is what the community used. Immediate improvements of more than 10x was not uncommon.
In time of course, GPUs reached their limit and people started to build dedicated. In the same vein as the CPU to GPU transition, similar performance increase was common. These ASICs can only perform SHA-256 calculation so they can be highly optimized. Their performance mainly depends on the die size of the chips exactly like CPU chips.
In general, think of bitcoin mining's technological advancement no different to mining gold. Gold panning (CPUs) vs pickaxes (GPUs) vs machinery (ASICs) and we are still in the ASIC mining race.
ASIC mining started with ASICMiner and Avalon being first to the market, both producing 130nm and 110nm chips. The technology are antiquated in comparison to CPUs and GPUs which are now 22nm with 14nm slated for Q1 next year by Intel but they are cheap to manufacture and with performance gains similar to the CPU to GPU transition, they were highly successful and popular for early adopters. At that point in time since there were less competing manufacturers and the low batch runs of their products, miners became really rich due to the slow increase in difficulty.
The good days came to an end mid August with an unprecedented 35% increase in difficulty. This is due to existing manufacturers selling more hardware and many other players coming onto the market with better hardware (smaller die). Since die shrinking knowledge and manufacturing process are well known along with a large technological gap (110nm vs 22nm), you get an arms race. Current ASIC makers are closing in on our technological limit and until everyone catches up, the difficulty jumps will be high because it is just too easy to get a performance increase. Most newer products run at 28nm and most chips are not well optimized, so it will be around another 6 to 9 months before we see hit a hard plateau with 22nm or 14nm chips. The estimated time frame is because manufacturing chips at 22nm or 14nm is a more difficult and expensive task. In the meantime most manufacturers will probably settle at 28nm and we will reach a soft plateau in about 3 months.
Now, you might ask these questions and should have them answered and if you have not thought about them at all, then you probably should not touch bitcoin until you understand cause you are highly unprepared and probably lose lots of money.
No. If you have to ask, please do not touch bitcoin yet. You will spend more on electricity cost than mining any substantial bitcoin. Seriously. At all. A 7990 would produce a pitiful 0.02879 XBT (USD $14 @ $500/XBT exchange rate) for the next 30 days starting 23 Nov 2013 at 35% difficulty increase.
And if you think you can mine on your laptop either on a CPU or GPU, you are probably going to melt it before you even get 0.01 XBT.
Probably not because you probably forgot that GPUs and CPUs produce a ton of heat and noise. You can try but I see no point earning < $20 bucks per month.
No, because your machine will probably not mine as much as buying bitcoins. This situation is called the opportunity cost. While you can still make money if XBT rise in value, it is a fallacy.
IE: if you start mining on 1 Dec 2013, a KnC Jupiter running at 450Gh/sec (KnC lies as not all chips run at 550Gh/sec) will yield you a total revenue of 9.5189 XBT with a profit of 0.7859 XBT in profit by 30th Jan 2014 at a constant difficulty increase of 35%. The opportunity cost is: 8.5910 XBT @ USD $580/XBT with USD $5,000 which is the cost of a KnC Jupiter. This is the best you can earn and it's a bloody optimistic assumption because:
The only circumstances where you will earn money is when XBT exchange rates is so high that it makes the opportunity cost pales in comparison. Unfortunately this is not the case. If XBT stabilized at 900/XBT today (20 Nov 2013) then we might have a good case.
The risk is just generally not worth it. Unless you have at least a hundred thousand and can make a contract with a manufacturer for a lower cost, do not bother. Just wait until the arms race is over then you can start mining.
Okay, go buy an AsicMiner USB Block Erupter. They are cheap and pretty fun to have.
Sure, just read the answer below on who NOT to go for. You are doing bitcoin a service by securing the network and you have our (the users') gratitude.
You can check out the manufacturers and their products below along with a calculator here.
If you still insist on buying, do not to go for BFL. Their track record is horrid and borderline scammish. KnC fucked up a lot with defective boards and chips. Personally, I think CoinTerra is the best choice.
Alternatively, you can go on the secondary market to buy a delivered product. You can get a better deal there if you know how to do your "return on investment (ROI)" calculation. Personally, I will go for a 45%-50% difficulty increase for the next 3 months for my calculations and a 2% pool fee.
However, most products on ebay are sold at a cost much higher than it should. bitcointalk.org is a cheaper place because everyone knows what are the true value is so you will find less options. If you are unclear or need assistance, please post a question.
I actually do not use any of the pools recommended to the left because I think they lack features.
My favourite is Bitminter (Variable fees based on features used; max 2%). It has all advanced features for a pool, very responsive and helpful owner on IRC. Variable fees is good for those who do not need a large feature set, even with all features turned on, it is still cheap.
Eligius (0% fees) has high value for money but lacks features. It has anonymous mining which might be attractive to certain subset of people but not for others. Many other community member and I disagree highly with the opinions of the owner on the direction of bitcoin. I do use his pool for now but I do so only because I share my miners with a few partners and anonymous mining allows us to monitor the machines without using an account. Bitminter uses only OpenID which is problematic for me.
BTC Guild (3% fees) is another big pool and is fully featured and does charge a premium for their fees. That said, they are the most stable of the lot. I do use them but do so only because my hoster uses them for monitoring. I try not to use them because a pool with a very large hash rate (they are the largest) presents a large vulnerability to bitcoin's network if compromised.
All of them pay out transaction fees.
submitted by Coz131 to BitcoinMining [link] [comments]

On the argument of Bitcoin is more secure than Litecoin.

How would you quantify security? The argument I've heard is based on the network hash rate. LTC and BTC use different algorithms, so the H/s isn't a good comparison in my opinion. Can we get a more fair comparison?
I believe security of the network should factor in the market cap of the coin (how much is at stake to be lost) compared to the cost of making it insecure. We've accepted that the biggest threat is a 51% attack. So I suggest a ratio of "CostOf51%Attack per MarketCap". For every dollar of MarketCap it costs X dollars to attack. A bigger X number is better, right?
So let's do the math!
Bitcoin hashrate is 6,224,502,838 GH/s at the time of writing based on https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
A 51% attack on Bitcoin would require 3,174,496,447 GH/s. MSRP of an Antminer S9 (14TH/s=14,000GH/s) is $1141USD, therefore a 51% attack would require 226,749 Antminer S9's, a cost of $258,720,609. This is protecting a coin with Market Cap of $46,262,886,921
So the result "Security" rating is 0.005592. For every dollar of Bitcoin MarketCap it costs $0.005592 to attack.
Litecoin hashrate is 12,923 GH/s at the time of writing based on https://bitcoinwisdom.com/litecoin/difficulty
A 51% attack on Litecoin would require 6590.73GH/s. MSRP of an Antminer L3+ (504MH/s=0.504GH/s) is $1764USD, therefore a 51% attack would require 13,076 Antminer L3+'s, a cost of $23,066,064. This is protecting a coin with Market Cap of $2,244,425,045
So the result "Security" rating is 0.0102777. For every dollar of Litecoin MarketCap it costs $0.010277 to attack.
Based on this result, Litecoin is nearly TWICE as secure as Bitcoin.
Please check my math before declaring a winner. It's been a long day for me. Also looking for constructive feedback.
submitted by RedShiz to litecoin [link] [comments]

How Much Would it Cost to 51% as of 10/14?

I feel like I am always seeing wildly varying estimates of how much it would cost to perform a 51% attack. I know it's a moving target with rapid hash rate growth, advancing technology, etc., but that doesn't seem to account for the huge range in estimates I've seen.
I was surprised when Vitalik just recently suggested that it would cost as little as $70M in hardware:
http://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/2is4us/whats_wrong_with_counterparty/cl6s6p7
... which seems like a somewhat discomfortingly small amount!
So my main Q: what's your estimate of what it would cost to perform a 51% attack as of today, 10/14. At the risk of sounding too much like a high school math exam, please explain your calcs/assumptions as I'm curious to see how people approach this and get at why estimates vary so much.
For reference: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is showing 250 peta hashes of network hash power.
submitted by BTC_Learner to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Market Sentiment #7 (+ BCH v. BTC battle, summarized)

Ok. What a week! So much happened!
Bitcoin v. Bitcoin Cash
I had predicted something big happening with Bitcoin Cash on multiple occasions. But I would have never been able to guess the sheer scale of what happened. Let's summarize what happened (I'll update this later with links so that you don't have to take my word on any of this):
So, my thoughts? I don't think BTC is going anywhere. It's the poster child, and there's no way it can be traded into oblivion overnight. But I also think that BCH addresses a key need of the hour - scalability. Irrespective of the approach, scaling is something we badly need right now. So BCH will grow. It will end up becoming a major force in the crypto sphere because of how easy it is to transact. There's more than enough space at the top for all the cryptos to co-exist!
Market Sentiment
For the coming week, I daresay we can expect atleast 1-2 BTC bull-runs, but there is the small chance of the aforementioned BCH pump over the weekend.
Overall, a good time for trading alts:
Something else that I noticed was how resilient (and profitable, even!) coins like ETH, XMR and OMG have been through everything that has been going on. Conditions seem ideal for ETH to finally get out of the cursed #300Zone, and go back to previous all-time highs.
These markets are ideal for short-term trades and swing trades. Keep compounding your investments by 1-2%. Do it enough times and you'll be a millionaire!
This post was delayed due to a frantic week both at work and in the crypto-sphere!
Table of Contents
submitted by VikNoob to u/VikNoob [link] [comments]

Die rand is kak

So the bitcoin network starts off 2016 much stronger than it entered 2015. With over a billion $ in startup investment capital. It is crazy to realize that it is worth R111,415,577,100 in valuation (amount of coins multiplied by freemarket price) and this is just the beginning. Compare this to standard bank at R188,4B especially if you consider they are down about 40% in the past year where bitcoin is up 533% since 2013, and up 61% in the last 6 months.
1 bitcoin = R7404
Crazy you might say.. no. Go look up what quantitative easing is. Hint: The banks have been creating trillions, devaluing your savings.
Bitcoin's processing power is now at 832,017,286,000,000,000 SHA256 hashes per second. This is what work it requires to mine bitcoin, what makes it secure and why we trust it more than some database in someone's vault that they can go edit if they please. This is real measurable energy consumption. Almost like digging up gold, just more humane.
With 6 months left till the amount of new bitcoins mined halves to 12.5BTC per 10mins. We'll be entering the realm of sub 5% yearly monetary base inflation. This means instead of R788,400,000 worth of bitcoin created per month it will become only R394,200,000 worth per month newly issued. This new cycle will run for 4 years, like the last, before it halves again, and again. Until eventually in 140 years from now we have the last bit of bitcoin at 21million BTC. 21,000,000.000,000,000 should be enough for everyone.
I've used rands so people can understand the scale of this thing a bit better. The exchange rates change over time according to free markets.
Edit: I've added a list of links.. far from complete, but good enough to get started. I recommend south africans to use bitx market to exchange BTC/ZAR. Watch the links under knowledge in this list.
Wallets:
breadwallet iPhone bitcoin Android
more on bitcoin.org/en/choose-your-wallet
Exchanges:
bitx ZAR, MYR, NGN, KES, IDR kraken EUR, USD, CAD, GBP, JPY, LTC okcoin CNY, USD vaultoro XAU (gold) There are many more..
Useful services for south african bitcoin holders:
bitrefill Buy 8ta, cellc, mtn or vodacom airtime using bitcoin. takealot.com Buy things online for delivery, use instant eft then bitcoin on checkout. namecheap Domains for bitcoin.
Tools:
bitxZAR bitx market for south africans. bitcoinwisdom for seeing live exchange rates across many exchanges. cryptowatch has some other exchanges listed aswell and nice plotting tools. bitcointicker realtime market ticker. coinigy professional crypto trading platform (30 day free, 0.054BTC/mo) blockchain.info viewer, wallet provider and blockchain api blockr.io blockchain viewer and api bitpay easy bitcoin integration provider
Community
reddit/bitcoin reddit/btc bitcointalk forums bitcoin.com forum
Channel ##bitcoin on freenode irc server 
Knowledge:
bitcoin core sourcecode on github
bitcoin whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto (pdf)
Bitcoin, Freedom, and the Future of Finance? by Bhagwan Chowdhry, Professor of Finance at UCLA Anderson, joined us for an IDFC-U discussion in which he explained why he believes Bitcoin is just the beginning.
Wired 2015 Bitcoin by Andreas Antonopoulos
submitted by rende to southafrica [link] [comments]

Does bitcoin hash rate Matter? Crypto Marketer Answers Best Bitcoin (BTC) Indicators To Use On Tradingview! - YouTube Bitcoin: Hash rate and price analysis Bitcoin Hashrate fällt! BTC Mining profitabel? - YouTube Bitcoin Fundamentals: Mining

The BTC.com Bitcoin mining profit calculator allows users to select the currency, hash rate, power application in watts, electric prices, Bitcoin price, beginning complexity, and complexity development. After entering all the data this calculator displays results for the entire profit, total income, price/TH, return on expense and much more. bitinfocharts.com – Covering price, volume, transaction value, fees, block time, block size, difficulty, hash rate, mining profitability, and even wealth distribution — not to mention a plethora of other metrics like social media stats — bitinfocharts.com presents a wealth of information and charts all at a glance. Real-Time Bitfinex BTC/USD Bitcoin to US Dollar Market Charts. Was kann ich tun, wenn bitcoinwisdom.com nicht verfügbar ist? Wenn BitcoinWisdom funktioniert, aber Sie die Website nicht erreichen können, versuchen Sie bitte eine der folgenden Lösungen: Browser-Cache.Die meisten Browser verwenden das Page Caching, um häufig benötigte Ressourcen auf dem Computer des Benutzers zu speichern, was den Traffic-Verbrauch reduziert und den Browser-Betrieb ... bitcoinwisdom.io – For a truly old school way to check prices across popular exchanges, and view corresponding charts, bitcoinwisdom.io is a solid choice. The classic site affords users the ...

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Does bitcoin hash rate Matter? Crypto Marketer Answers

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